NYC wasn’t the only thing running hot this week — deals are percolating in the pipeline, which means that the summer is quickly shaping up to be a busy one.

9fin got the scoop on several transactions this week that may launch for syndication as soon as July, including as much as $4bn of debt backing electronics materials provider Qnity’s spin off from parent company DuPont via JP Morgan. Jefferies is also preparing to launch pre-marketing for a $900m refinancing deal tied to Pennsylvania natural gas plant Lackawanna Energy Center as power demand soars.

Earlier on Monday, we reported that JP Morgan was gauging investor interest for shower manufacturer American Bath Group’s debt refinancing three days ahead of its loan launch on 26 June. If you’re into tech-focused companies, look no further than KnowBe4. The cybersecurity training firm is seeking to refinance its private credit facility in the broadly syndicated loan market via JP Morgan.

Adding to the deal pipeline are energy and defense borrowers seizing the opportunity to raise debt amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, including Czechoslovak Group and Crescent Energy.

However, buysiders are remaining cautious to not get overly enthusiastic about these sectors that appear to be benefiting now from the volatility.

“The majority of investors have learned the hard way that you get hurt if you take too bearish of a view on the outcome of those situations,” said Tim Crawmer, director and global credit strategist at Payden & Rygel.

Also helping fuel investor sentiment this week is the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, in addition to a newly inked US-China trade agreement. Both developments have lifted investor confidence this week, especially in high yield.

“High yield is following the equity market up right now. We saw uncertainty on trade come down materially this week on the heels of the framework of a deal announced with China and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran,” said John Sherman, portfolio manager at Polen Capital. “We also had some encouraging data on inflation, which could lead to interest rates coming down in the future. I believe this has driven enthusiasm into the equity markets, which is also getting pushed into the high yield markets.”

Beautiful sole

Skechers laced up the debt raise backing its buyout by 3G Capital, which at a $9.4bn valuation is chunkier than the soles of most dad sneakers. A sellsider following the deal said lenders were initially wary given the current macro backdrop, but the underlying company dynamics drew them in.

“When you first looked at it, it’s a name people don’t see as top notch from a brand perspective,” the sellside source said. “But then you look under the covers — it's the third largest shoe brand in the world, the business is cutting costs and it has more stability because it’s not a fashion risk.”

That sentiment showed up in the secondary, where the bonds are bid up to a price of around 103 in early trading.

Other highlights from this week include:

• Convergint’s $2.15bn TLB due 2032; the security systems installer’s debt documents contain an unusually long portability clause that helps banks compete with private credit sources but increases ownership risks
• Drop ship fulfillment software provider Rithum’s $805m TLB that refinances existing debt ahead of an October contract renewal with retailer QVC
• Radiology Partners’ $1.4bn TLB due 2032 and $900m of SSNs due 2032 which the radiology service provider is raising as it moves beyond a cash burning phase
• Telecom operator ITG Communications’ $540m TLB due 2031, which is slightly larger than its previous $525m loan that was pulled due to tariff-driven volatility in April
• WS Audiology’s repricing of a euro-denominated TLB due 2028 and dollar TLB due 2028 as the hearing aids manufacturer takes advantage of recent ratings upgrades to score cheaper pricing
• Warner Bros. Discovery, which officially drops to the high yield index on 1 July — we unpacked investors’ lack of enthusiasm for the credit here

Halftime

There’s just one trading day left before the books close on a whipsaw first half of the year, with expectations of a deal bonanza dashed by tariffs, ever-changing rhetoric from the White House and a Fed that’s holding course on interest rates. President Donald Trump, who has been vocal on his disdain for higher rates, is reportedly considering naming a replacement for Fed chairman Jay Powell well before his term expires, forcing him into a lame-duck scenario.

It’s been a first half for the ages — so what’s in store for the rest of 2025?

Barclays’ economists indicate that fears around tariffs and America’s fiscal direction is fading, with attention on geopolitics offset by continued growth in US payrolls and slowing inflation. They expect high yield spreads to stay tight in the short term due to low supply before widening to 325bps-350bps toward the year-end compared to current spreads in the low 300bps range.

JP Morgan analysts, meanwhile, expect just $65bn and $150bn in net bond and loan issuance by year-end, with M&A still dragged down by macro uncertainty, higher rates and a glut of refinancing activity over the past five quarters.

“We believe leveraged credit spreads will remain inside their long-term average due to solid balance sheets for most issuers, ample liquidity following a record refi wave, manageable default risk, attractive yields, and historically strong credit quality,” JP Morgan analysts wrote.